ASEP’s Indicators’ System
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The two most important indicators of the evaluation of the economy continue their downward trend, just as some of the main political indicators. In fact, the Consumer Sentiment Index loses the six percent points that it had gained in December, and the Evaluation of the National Economic Situation also loses the point it had gained in December, while the evaluation of the personal economic situation (as measured by Personal Optimism) gains two more points. In any case, the three indicators continue significantly below the equilibrium level. The two indicators on savings continue on their usual levels. Social indicators (Satisfaction with life, religious practice and post-materialism) do not vary significantly either, though post-materialism loses one more point and reaches the third lowest value of the last twelve months. As for political indicators, Satisfaction with how democracy is working maintains last month’s value, but Satisfaction with the Government loses two more points, thus reaching its lowest value since the 2004 elections. Ideological self-anchoring and nationalist sentiment maintain their usual levels. Satisfaction with Spain’s membership in the EU continues at a high level too, though it loses one point with respect to last month’s. And exposure to information continues also below the equilibrium level. Regarding the image of institutions, this month’s ranking is as follows: European Union ((6.2 points in a 0 to 10 scale), the Crown (6.0 points), Armed Forces and UN (5.7), NATO (5.3), and Banks and the National Government (4.9 in both cases on the 0 to 10 scale). Only Princess Cristina and Felipe Gonzalez obtain an evaluation over 5 points in the ranking of public leaders. The ranking is as follows: Princess Cristina (6.1 points in a 0 to 10 scale), Felipe Gonzalez (5.2), Jose Bono and Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero (both 4.7 points), Pope Benedict XVI (4.6), Rosa Diez (4.3 points), Gaspar Llamazares (3.7), Mariano Rajoy (3.4), José Mª Aznar (3.3), Patxi López (2.9), Juan José Ibarretxe (2.2) y Arnaldo Otegui (1.4 in the 0 to 10 scale). Contrary to what one would expect after ETA’s bombing of the Barajas airport terminal, and after the parliamentarian debate on counter-terrorist policy, PSOE increases one per cent point its difference with the PP, which this month is 4.7 points, somewhat higher than the one really registered in the 2004 elections. But the PSOE and the PP both obtain a vote estimate a little below its results in the 2004 elections, due to the fact that abstention estimate is this month more than two points higher than in the last elections.
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ETA’s breaking of the “cease fire”
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To the question of what party was responsible for breaking the Treaty against Terrorism 30% do not give an opinion, 24% think that the PP broke the treaty, 22% say that both parties broke it, 15% believe that the PSOE was responsible for the break, and even 9% think that the treaty has not been broken. But when the question is asked whether the bombing implied a “rupture” or just a “suspension” of the “peace process”, 51% answer that it implied “rupture” and only 35% answer that “suspension”. 71% attribute the responsibility of the bombing to ETA, while proportions smaller than 7% attribute this responsibility to the PSOE, Batasuna or the PP. When evaluating reactions of politicians and institutions after the bombing, the worst rating is for Batasuna, followed by Rajoy, the PP, the PNV, United Left, President Zapatero, the National Government, the PSOE and the Labour Unions, and finally the Crown, which is the one receiving the best evaluation for its performance in the first days after the bombing. 44% think that the most efficient policy to finish once and for all with the threat of ETA’s terrorism is “police investigation and the courts”, and only a smaller proportion, 34%, think that the most efficient policy is “dialog and negotiation”. The latter were asked through an open question with who should the PSOE Government negotiate. 44% of them say that the Government should negotiate “with all parties without any exclusion at all”, 36% say that it should negotiate and talk with ETA, 29% answer that it should negotiate with Batasuna, and proportions smaller than 10% mention PP, PNV, or PSOE’s parliamentarian associates (ERC and IU). In the event that the Government should negotiate with ETA and Batasuna, the question was asked what the Government should do, and what R thought the Government will do. Regarding the first question, 43% think that “to maintain the contacts and conversations open but not accepting any of Batasuna’s and ETA’s requests until violence has ceased completely”, 31% answer that “to request an unconditional surrender of the terrorist band ETA as a previous condition to any dialog or negotiation”, and only 16% believe that the Government should “accept some of Batasuna’s and ETA’s petitions to avoid breaking the contacts and negotiations”. However, to the question of what do they think the Government will do, the proportion of those who do not answer increases, while the other three options decrease. 49% of Rs think that Batasuna mainly seeks independence of the Basque Country, and 29% believe that they aim to “presence and participation in elections and political institutions”. But, with respect to ETA, 60% think that their main goal is independence of the Basque Country. Regarding those who believe that the most efficient policy that should be followed in order to finish with ETA’s terrorism is “police research and courts’ action”, they were asked how the police and the judges should act regarding terrorists: 70% answer that “with much more rigor”, and an additional 21% answer “with some more rigor”, but only 6% answer that “more or less like now”, and less that 1% answer, in both cases, “with some less” or with “much less” rigor. Since April 2006 ASEP has asked several times about Spaniards’ opinions about giving counterparts to Batasuna and ETA in exchange for putting an end to violence in some eventual negotiations. As in previous months, total rejection of any concession to terrorists is repeated, since 50% or more answer they would never grant any of the supposed counterparts. 42% even claim they would never grant “approaching ETA prisoners to the Basque Country”. Comparing the 11-M and the 30-D terrorist attempts, Rs acquit the incumbent Government in each of those dates from any responsibility on them. On the contrary, 51% think that the opposition party (PSOE) partially or fully blamed the (PP) Government for the 11-M bombing, and exactly the same proportion, 51% think that the opposition party (PP) partially or fully blamed the (PSOE) Government for the 30-D terrorist bombing. Regarding the parliamentarian debate of January 15th on anti-terrorist policy, 30% felt more identified with the PSOE Government’s discourse (Rodriguez Zapatero), and only 16% identify themselves with PP’s discourse (Rajoy), though 21% does not identify with either one. Besides, 51% agreed (before it was called) that the Government should call a public demonstration against terrorism, and only 27% were against it. Those in favour of calling the demonstration based their opinion in showing their support to peace, against ETA, in showing their rejection and blame of terrorism, as well as the union of all citizens. And those in favour of not calling the demonstration based their opinion on the assumption that it would not be useful at all. Finally, and when asked about the opinion that ETA really meant to abandon violence, 41% say surely not, and an additional 28% think that probably not, as against 14% who think surely and probably not.
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Household Economy
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According to the Government, average income of Spanish families is about 1,800 € a month. But only 16% say they have that income and, while 10% say they have higher incomes, 59% report having lower incomes and only 14% do not answer the question. Besides, though 41% do not seem to have debts as those mentioned, one out of four Rs is paying a house mortgage, a little less than one out of five is paying a car credit, another 15% is paying other credits, 12% must face paying schools, and even 11% must face delayed payments because of credit cards purchases
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Spain’s Most Important Problems
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ASEP has frequently asked since 2004 about the problems that citizens believe are the most important for Spain. Each R could mention up to three problems, for which reason the sum of all percentages is always larger than 100. This month, the most cited problems are housing (39%), unemployment (34%), terrorism (33%), immigration (27%) and salaries (20%).
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Fears of Spaniards
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Since some time ago ASEP has also been asking about Spaniards’ most important fears. According to this month’s data, Spaniards’ main fear is to contract a serious and incurable sickness, followed by the fear to suffer a terrorist attempt from ETA, and finally the fear to have a traffic accident, motorcycle or car.
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<u>Technical data</u>: National stratified sample by region and size of habitat, random selection of municipalities and census sections (about 130 sampling points), random routes and final selection of respondent in the household based on stratification by sex and age. A total of 1,201 face-to-face interviews were obtained at respondent’s home in January 15 to 17. Research direction: ASEP.</td></tr>
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